Published in the July/Aug issue of Refocus

Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System Worldwatch Paper 157, August 2001, by Seth Dunn

This little book (75 pages without endnotes) provides a well-written, brief overview of the emerging hydrogen market for interested laypeople, while experts will appreciate the summaries of the latest findings and projects. Hydrogen is being touted as the petroleum of the 21st century. In fuel cells, its only by-products are heat and water. With fumes like that, who wouldn't want it? So when do we get it? The answer, according to this Paper, is: nobody knows. The author gives ample space to those he does not agree with who argue that for the current liquid fuel infrastructure - read: gas stations and oil pipelines - as a interim basis for the hydrogen infrastructure that would be too costly at the outset. Such people are behind the current push to use gasoline (or methanol) for the reformation process in hybrid vehicles. The author himself fears that this is exactly what will happen as, once again, the inferior technology wins out in the end (one example he gives of such a case is "Windows over Macintosh"). Such an interim period, he fears, will only keep fuel cells from making their break-through while withholding a truly environmentally friendly fuel from consumers.

He cites numerous researchers who either argue that the costs of a hydrogen infrastructure are either highly exaggerated to begin with or that the infrastructure will not need to be complete in the beginning anyway. The former suggest ways of using the existing oil pipelines and gas stations to transport and store hydrogen, while the latter focus on using centrally refuelled fleets (such as city buses) to get the industry up to critical mass. In such a scenario, the storage and transport needs are drastically limited. The author's idealist vision is one in which hydrogen is created solely from renewable energy (called "solar hydrogen"). For instance, when wind and solar power (or geothermal in places like Iceland) one day exceed demand in the public grid or a given micro-grid, hydrogen reformers can pick up speed. Such is already envisioned in places like Iceland, Hawaii, and Vanuatu - all of them islands with plenty of solar energy potential and no fossil reserves. Another best-case scenario is one in which cars are used as small, decentralized power plants. A 20kW prototype car already developed provides enough power for several houses. When not being driven, it supplies power to residents. The author also argues that the hydrogen industry needs government help. Without the proper policies, the market will decide, and the market is not neutral, given the huge vested interests of the oil, automobile, and utility companies. Finally, the Paper also clears up the common misconception that hydrogen is somehow more dangerous to store and handle than gasoline and diesel (it is not more dangerous, just differently so). And in passing, the book provides an unstructured history of hydrogen as a fuel, including its discovery early in the 19th century and its promulgation by 19th century science French fiction author Jules Verne, who wrote a book in which water was "the coal of the future".